Apple iPhone XR shipment forecast slashed by analyst Ming-Chi Kuo

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Based on Lumentum forecast, analysts have deduced that there is an 18 to 20 million reduction in iPhone orders from Apple.

Estimates of Apple's "most affordable" 2018 model, the iPhone XR, has been cut by almost 30 million shipments, a famed Apple analyst has written in his research note. Lumentum, which supplies FaceID components for the iPhone XS, XS Max, and XR, has reduced its profit and revenue forecasts thanks to reduced orders from Apple.

On Friday we reported that a company by the name of II-VI had acquired Apple backed Finisar. "Apple got cautious in their guidance and it's hitting their suppliers", he continued.


Lumentum, a maker of parts used for facial recognition, didn't name the customer but Apple is its biggest, according to Bloomberg supply-chain data.

"We believe these challenges are largely cyclical and investors should pay greater attention to the transformation to services, where Apple was able to report quarterly record revenue of $10 bn in [the most recent quarter] despite a regulatory challenge in China", the JPMorgan analysts write. He's got an awesome track record-and that's not even to mention that Apple has announced it will stop reporting unit sales of its iPhones next quarter, suggesting Apple is expecting a downturn as well.

The latest evidence that what's bad for Apple can be awful for suppliers came on two continents within hours of each other.


If demand for newer, pricier iPhones wanes, Apple can cut component orders, or delay shipments, leaving suppliers with more inventory.

Apple has lost $120 billion in market capitalisation since the last trading day of September, and many analysts are warning that the brief days of Apple being a trillion dollar company are over. "But [these results are] about to be more than offset by a big jump in ASPs (+17%Y/Y in FY18), which ultimately drove Apple's best iPhone revenue growth in 3 years, we rather now find that setup flipped with "growth via ASPs" widely known but just as those ASPs start to anniversary". And Citi downgraded Skyworks to neutral and slashed its price target to $85 from $116, citing both "disappointing iPhone XR unit sales" and "broad smartphone weakness".

"Although Apple has positioned itself as a super-expensive handset maker providing high-end products, its strategy has not been working in emerging markets including China and India as Chinese vendors have been making iPhone-like products", he said.


The move led analysts to question the company's business and its share price has since dropped 12.6 percent.

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